DECIPHERING THE DETERMINANTS OF PUBLIC DEBT IN THE GAMBIA: EVIDENCE FROM AUTOREGRESSIVE REDISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL) BOUND COINTEGRATION ANALYSIS

Abstract

The accumulation of public debt, a pervasive global phenomenon, has spurred intense debate in academic and policy circles, particularly regarding its determinants in developing countries. While some scholars attribute public debt accumulation to internal factors such as poor debt management and low government revenues, others emphasize economic factors including interest rates, economic growth, inflation, debt stock, budget deficits, public expenditure, openness, and monetary policy credibility. Additionally, socio-political factors such as political systems, corruption, electoral openness, competitiveness for legislative elections, and fraud have been identified as significant determinants of public debt accumulation, particularly in countries within the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC) region. This paper critically examines the multifaceted determinants of public debt accumulation, drawing insights from diverse scholarly perspectives and empirical evidence. By synthesizing existing literature and empirical findings, it offers a comprehensive understanding of the complex interplay between economic, political, and institutional factors shaping public debt dynamics in developing countries. The insights generated can inform policy formulation and decision-making aimed at promoting fiscal sustainability and effective debt management strategies.